United States Solar PV Market 2026 - 11.4 GW Q2 Installations Surge 45% as Tax Credits, Tariffs and Domestic Manufacturing Reshape the Industry

The United States solar PV market encompasses the deployment, manufacturing and financing of solar photovoltaic power across utility-scale, residential, commercial and community segments. Makreo Research estimates that the market represents approximately 89% of North America's cumulative solar PV capacity, which reached around 235.1 GW at the end of 2025, with the United States contributing approximately 209.5 GW, placing the country among the world's largest solar markets.

The United States added 11.4 GW of solar capacity in Q2 2026, marking a 45% year-on-year increase and a 43% quarter-on-quarter rebound, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association. The surge was primarily driven by utility-scale developers securing federal tax credits ahead of the 4 July 2026 begin-construction deadline under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Solar and storage together represented 70% of new US generating capacity during the first half of 2026.

For developers, independent power producers, utilities, module, cell and inverter manufacturers, EPCs, corporate offtakers and investors, the question is no longer whether the US market is growing. It is which segment of that growth is durable, and which is a one-off surge that borrows from the years ahead.

Why Did United States Solar Installations Surge 45% in Q2 2026?

The principal driver of the second-quarter surge was the tax credit phase-out under OBBBA rather than organic demand growth. Projects that commenced construction by 4 July 2026 retain access to the 30% Investment Tax Credit and Production Tax Credit, provided they are placed in service within four calendar years. Developers consequently accelerated the mobilisation of safe-harboured project pipelines.

Utility-scale solar added 9.6 GW, up 61% year on year, accounting for the overwhelming majority of the 11.4 GW total. SEIA reports that operating US solar capacity has reached 299.4 GW, sufficient to power approximately 50 million homes, while solar alone accounted for 45% of new generating capacity during the first half of 2026.

Deployment remained concentrated across the Sun Belt and selected Midwestern markets, with Texas adding 1.7 GW, Arizona 1.4 GW and Michigan 0.9 GW. Utility-scale contracting reached 4.9 GW in Q2, while data and technology companies represented most new offtake agreements, according to Solar Power World reporting based on SEIA data.

The Distributed Segments Are Splitting in Two Directions

The headline surge conceals a two-speed market. Residential installations fell 12% year on year to 995 MW, the segment's lowest quarterly level in five years, following the expiry of the Section 25D residential tax credit at the end of 2025. Commercial and industrial solar rose 11% year on year to 638 MW, supported by California's remaining Net Energy Metering 2.0 pipeline, which contributed 256 MW on its own. Community solar declined 14% year on year to 231 MW, although Illinois installed a record 112 MW for the quarter, overtaking New York as community solar permitting slowed there sharply.

The practical implication is that the safe-harboured, utility-scale cohort is likely to dominate installations through 2028, while residential and commercial channels are shifting from cash and loan sales towards third-party ownership and lease structures that can continue accessing credits through Section 48E.

The FCC Inverter Ban Is Freezing New Equipment Procurement

On 28 July 2026, the Federal Communications Commission's Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau added foreign-produced power inverters to its Covered List, an immediate ban on new equipment authorisations for unapproved foreign models on national security grounds. The determination targets networked inverters with remote communications and firmware-update capabilities; hardwired or air-gapped units fall outside its scope. Previously authorised models remain eligible for import, sale and installation, so most near-term projects face limited disruption. A conditional approval pathway is available through the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Defense for manufacturers that commit to US assembly.

The structural problem is capacity. Department of Energy data show that US-headquartered manufacturers supply only around 7% of US inverter shipments, a gap that cannot be closed quickly. Hardware refreshes and next-generation models now require a fresh FCC grant unless assembled domestically, and more than 58,000 MW of new solar and storage capacity is due to connect over the next year into this constrained supply chain. For asset managers, there is a second-order risk too: replacing a banned foreign inverter with a compliant domestic model can count as a material modification under standard interconnection rules, sending a project back into the engineering re-study queue. Procurement strategy, not panel pricing, is increasingly the binding constraint on project timelines.

Section 232 Tariffs Are Redrawing the Solar Supply Chain

On 6 August 2026, the President issued a Section 232 proclamation imposing a 15% ad valorem tariff on polysilicon derivative products, including ingots, wafers, cells and modules, effective from 4 December 2026. Minimum import prices are enforced through additional specific tariffs of USD 21 per kilogram for polysilicon, USD 100 per kilogram for ingots and wafers, USD 0.22 per watt for cells and USD 0.38 per watt for modules. The action replaces the Section 201 safeguard that had applied since January 2018 and expired in February 2026, but its scope is broader, reaching upstream to polysilicon, ingots and wafers rather than only cells and modules. It also includes a tariff offset mechanism for companies that commit to building or expanding US polysilicon production capacity.

The tariffs stack with existing measures. In September 2026, the Department of Commerce finalised substantial anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia and Laos, with anti-dumping margins of 123.04%, 94.36% and 65.43% respectively, and countervailing rates of up to 173.7%. Industry analysts at Anza estimated in late September that module prices could rise by at least 40% once the new minimum import prices take effect, with developers weighing whether to secure US-based modules, accelerate imports ahead of December, or restructure procurement altogether. The combined effect is a near-comprehensive tariff barrier that strengthens the relative economics of domestic cell and module production.

Can US Solar Manufacturing Close the Cell Gap?

US module assembly capacity has expanded rapidly to 69.9 GW, but cell production stood at only 3.2 GW in mid-2026, leaving most US-assembled panels dependent on imported cells. That bottleneck is now being addressed at scale. In June 2026, Qcells began manufacturing solar cells at its Cartersville, Georgia facility, the first US factory to integrate ingot, wafer, cell and module production. At full production, expected in the third quarter of 2026, the site will add 3.3 GW each of ingot, wafer and cell capacity and 3.5 GW of module capacity, taking Qcells' Georgia output to 8.6 GW of modules annually and enabling customers to access the 10% domestic content bonus under the Investment Tax Credit.

In April 2026, Suniva announced an investment of more than USD 350 million in a 4.5 GW cell factory in Laurens, South Carolina, due to begin operations in the second quarter of 2027. Combined with its existing Norcross, Georgia plant, Suniva's domestic cell capacity will exceed 5.5 GW; the company subsequently closed a USD 835 million capital raise to support the build-out.

Data Centres and M&A Are Reshaping Who Buys US Solar

Hyperscale technology companies are reshaping demand on the buy side. At the Steel River Energy Center in Arkansas, Cypress Creek Renewables broke ground in 2026 on the first two phases, combining 1,600 MW of solar with 1,900 MW of battery storage at a cost of USD 3.5 billion, under a 20-year offtake agreement with Google. A third phase could expand the project to 2,500 MW of solar and 2,900 MW of storage; most components were sourced domestically, including First Solar modules, Nextpower racking and US Steel coil processed in Arkansas.

Transaction activity points to continued consolidation across the US solar, storage and renewable-energy supply chain. Key developments in 2026.

• Enel Green Power North America - 270 MW solar portfolio: Enel Green Power North America agreed in 2026 to acquire a 270 MW operating solar portfolio across Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina for approximately USD 140 million, according to Mercom Capital.

• Otovo - SunSystem Technology: Otovo completed the USD 1.3 million acquisition of SunSystem Technology in July 2026, expanding its service platform to approximately 30% of the United States.

• Chrysalis Renewables - US solar projects: Morrison-backed Chrysalis Renewables acquired two US solar projects through a partnership with Hanwha, adding to consolidation activity in the US solar project market.

• Nextpower - Zimmermann PV-Steel Group: Nextpower agreed to acquire Zimmermann PV-Steel Group to strengthen its position in solar mounting and steel products, extending M&A activity beyond project ownership into the solar equipment supply chain.

• T1 Energy - KORE Power: T1 Energy agreed in June 2026 to acquire KORE Power for approximately USD 32 million, gaining utility-scale battery storage engineering capabilities and access to AI data centre infrastructure markets.

• Jupiter Power - BESS financing: On 16 September 2026, Jupiter Power announced USD 1.4 billion in financing, closed between April and July, supporting 10 US BESS projects totalling 3,600 MWh.

US battery installations reached a record 20.2 GWh in Q2 2026, up from 9.7 GWh in Q1, reinforcing the growing connection between solar deployment, battery storage and rising electricity demand from data centres.

Where the US Ranks in the Global Solar PV Market

The United States remains the world's third-largest solar market. Global additions reached approximately 690 GW in 2025, up 15% year on year, taking cumulative capacity to 2.96 TW, according to the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme. China installed 415 GW, representing 60% of global additions, followed by India at 54 GW and the United States at 43 GW, while the European Union added 68 GW collectively.

Makreo Research estimates global cumulative solar PV capacity at approximately 2.9 to 3 TW in 2025, with Asia Pacific alone adding around 430 GW in 2024, and expects global solar PV revenue growth to be slightly above 8% in 2025, moderated by tariff and policy pressure rather than weaker underlying demand. China continues to control more than 80% of the global solar PV supply chain. Further detail on demand, segmentation and forecasts across regions and technologies is available in Makreo Research's Global Photovoltaic (PV) Market and Forecast to 2030 report, alongside dedicated studies of the China, India and Asia-Pacific solar PV markets.

Where the US Solar PV Market Is Heading to 2030

Makreo Research expects the US solar PV market to follow a compressed, policy-driven trajectory rather than a smooth growth curve through 2030, based on four factors. First, installations should remain elevated through 2028 as the safe-harboured pipeline converts into placed-in-service capacity; the 11.4 GW quarter marks the start of that conversion, not its peak. Second, a demand air pocket is plausible in 2029 and 2030 unless new federal or state mechanisms emerge, since the post-deadline cohort faces either compressed timelines or unsubsidised economics alongside rising domestic module costs. Third, corporate procurement, led by data centre demand, will increasingly set the floor for utility-scale deployment and partly decouple the market from the federal incentive cycle. Fourth, manufacturing value should continue migrating upstream from modules towards cells, wafers and polysilicon, where tariff protection and minimum import prices provide more durable pricing support for domestic producers than assembly alone.

The investment implications follow directly. Cell and wafer capacity is the scarcest and most protected layer of the US value chain. Inverter and power electronics localisation is an emerging bottleneck with clear regulatory tailwinds behind it. Storage integration is becoming standard in utility-scale procurement rather than an add-on. For component suppliers, developers, manufacturers and investors, the period between now and the 2027 placed-in-service deadline is the critical planning horizon.

How Makreo Research Supports Decision Making in the US Solar Market

The US solar market is moving faster than most annual planning cycles. Makreo Research helps developers, EPC contractors, independent power producers, manufacturers, offtakers, utilities, investors and policymakers turn policy and market signals into commercial decisions.

• Market sizing and forecasting covering capacity, revenue and pricing scenarios under different tariff and tax credit outcomes.

• Segment-level demand analysis across utility-scale, commercial, community and residential solar, including solar-plus-storage.

• Competitive benchmarking of manufacturer, developer and EPC positioning, capacity and cost structures.

• Consumer and demand assessment covering offtaker requirements across data centres, utilities and industrial buyers.

• Geographic opportunity assessment, including state-level and ISO-level screening, interconnection and permitting risk.

• Investment and expansion analysis covering factory siting, onshoring programme eligibility and acquisition screening.

• Partnership and joint venture assessment across supply, offtake and technology partnerships.

• Consulting and market surveys with developers, procurement heads, utilities and investors.

The US Solar PV analysis combines market sizing, competitive benchmarking, policy assessment and industry-level research to assess the factors shaping solar PV deployment, investment and supply chains in the United States. The analysis considers both near-term developments, including the 2026 installation surge, and the structural factors expected to influence the market through 2030.

Makreo Research has published the Global Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Size and Forecast (2021-2030), covering market sizing, segmentation and forecasts across regions and technologies, alongside dedicated studies of the China, India and Asia-Pacific solar PV markets. Organisations evaluating the US solar market can engage Makreo Research for market entry, competitive benchmarking, demand assessment and customised market research tailored to their requirements.

To discuss your specific requirements for consulting or market survey engagements, contact Makreo Research at [email protected].